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MLB Betting Tips
While it is never easy to make consistent profits through
sports wagering, baseball generally offers a better opportunity to earn
money than with most games. The big reason why is because Major League
Baseball features more games than any other sport, meaning you have a
wider variety of lines to choose from.
Of course, this certainly
does NOT guarantee that you will profit
from MLB betting. The only way to ensure this is through diligent
research and handicapping. However, if you are willing to do the work,
you have a great shot at making long-term profits. And while we are at
it, here are some MLB betting tips that should get you off to a nice
Tip #1 - Look for Value in Underdogs
You might be
rolling your eyes at this tip because wagering on underdogs is one of
most common pieces of advice in any sport. But it reigns even truer in
baseball because the disparity between top teams and bottom-feeders is
Because bad teams have a solid shot at beating good
clubs, you can find lots of value in many lines. To take advantage of
this value, look beyond the starting pitching, which dictates a large
portion of sports book lines. Focus on errors made by both defenses,
hitting towards the end of lineups, and other overlooked stats that the
public may ignore.
Tip #2 - Avoid Heavy Favorites
you are set on betting MLB favorites, it is best to avoid teams that
have a moneyline of -150 or higher in my opinion. If you stick with -150
favorites, you will have to win over 60% of the time to make profits.
And with playoff teams usually winning at a 55% to 60% clip, on average,
it is hard to profit with big favorites.
Of course, we are
NOT saying that you should completely
ignore favorites. After all, you can find some decent value in plenty of
good teams. However, if you are going to bet on a favorite, just make
sure that their moneyline price is NOT too
Tip #3 - Bet Sparingly during the Early Season
spring rolls around and baseball finally picks up again, it is always
tempting to dive head-first into the matter and start betting big.
However, it is definitely a good idea to remain conservative in the
early going because this point of the season is filled with so many
uncertainties, in my opinion. In fact, I do
NOT bet during the preseason and really
start to bet like after 30 days.
Sure we have a solid idea of who
could be good based on team talent and last season's performances. But
how many times do we see good teams, solid hitters and great pitchers
get off to a rough start? Furthermore, you also have to consider that
April and May weather can be unpredictable and add more question marks
Tip #4 - Look at Pitching from Top to Bottom
is no secret that pitching is a huge part of baseball. This being said,
you need to look at everything from the starters to the bullpen before
wagering. Beginning with the starters, it is always good to stick with
players who performed well in their last outing. Since starting pitchers
normally throw every fifth day, they do
NOT have long to mentally overcome a bad
outing before their next start.
You also need to consider the
relievers because one or two bad innings could erase a starter's hard
work. The main thing to focus on here is how much work key relievers are
getting. If the starting rotation is doing its job, relief pitchers
will NOT have to throw as many innings, and
they will be fresher and generally more successful.
Tip #5 - Beware of Historically Good Teams on TV
we mentioned in the second tip, heavy favorites make it hard for
bettors to consistently make a profit. And this is especially the case
when talking about successful, iconic teams that are playing on TV.
example, when the Dodger or Giants are on television, they draw action
from a large number of recreational bettors. This drives their moneyline
up and makes it harder to turn a profit by wagering on them. So think
twice the next time you are considering a big bet on the Dodger while
they are televised.
Once you get past the basics, MLB betting
success is all about studying matchups, focusing on specific teams and
gaining experience. Assuming you remain dedicated to the game, you have a
solid shot at becoming a good baseball bettor.